Traffic forecast - Telecommunication network

If you are working in telecommunication company, you should take care about your traffic needs, traffics offered and traffics growth in your company.
it is impossible to develop unlimited network capacity at the moment, since there is limited technology capacity and limited cost you have to build them.
In my previous articles about network planning and dimensioning, i just explained how important about network planning in a telecommunication company. In doing network planning you need to do dimensioning in order to have strong and good enough network to give best Quality of Service to your subscriber.

In order to my opinion, dimensioning is like macro system in telecommunication company, you have to decide huge infrastructure, network flow, place element network in right node so it will be effective to serve subscriber traffic.
In micro system of telecommunication network, we have to decide and think about the traffic. Here we know about traffic engineering to do traffic measurement to see how subscriber needs. One of method in traffic engineering is traffic forecast.

Traffic forecast needed for deciding network dimensioning, it is useful for estimating about traffic growth and traffic offered in network.
If network’s already in production and live traffic, we need about traffic measurement in all network element. The datas should be comprehensived and completed report daily. We should monitor performance reporting daily to see busy hour time, and traffic characteristic in all network element.
Beside that, we need to calculate traffic characteristic generated by mobile subscriber, how its traffic distribute, amount in busy hour, and mobile subscriber behaviour in some festival days. And finally we need to estimate about subscriber growth in the future.
In easy word, we need about estimate traffic at the moment and based on that we do forecast traffic in the future. The result is we get traffic tendency in long time-span, so we get effective decision for network investment.

Traffic forecast procedure can be described briefly like this flow :traffic-forecast

First we have to define what we need, what for traffic forecast we will do. After that we have to collect data acquisition which the most important is in busy hour and mobile subscriber behaviour in some festival days.
Then, we have to choose about forecasting methods. We have three traffic forecast methods :

  • Trend method. Here we decide whether traffic distribute in linier or not linier distribution. We have to distinguish linier method and exponential method.
  • Statistical demand analysis. We have to map some factors which determine previous traffic growth dan make traffic mapping into current map, so we can compare it when we design new traffic map. you have to good skills in probability theory of traffic in this method.
  • Assessment method. We can use like analogy method to observe same precondition which can growth to same condition in the future. This is more in comparison method.

The final result of traffic forecast can be shown in traffic matrix. Here we can see relation between one node to another node. Traffic matrix can be written in T= T(i,j) which explain estimation traffic from one node i  or central i to node j or central j. We need read in advance to explain this theory.

What we can get that traffic forecast is need for network planning to provide micro data system in network dimensioning. The final result is we have effective investment in our telecommunication network. Please share and give me feedback for this.. thank you !

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